All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form – even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often.
But some superstars, despite their impressive goal tallies don’t hit the back of the net as often as they should, while others get way more than they realistically should.
It’s no surprise Barcelona ace Messi out performs most statistical models so expected goals (xG) is no match for the astonishingly good Argentine.
Since 2014/15, he’s netted 173 league goals but, according to OPTA’s xG model he should only have 131.78 – still a good number but to get 41.22 goals more is a sign of true greatness, especially given it’s over a period of four-and-a-half seasons.
But what about the rest of the top 30 goalscorers in Europe? Find out who over and under perform their expected goals total below.
LATEST FOOTBALL STORIES
'what is the lure?'
Simon Jordan offers a warning to Real Madrid target Eden Hazard
Fabregas appears to make light of Drinkwater's drink driving charge
West Ham fans appear to throw a dildo at Chelsea star Eden Hazard after scoring
Golden Shoe race: The top scoring domestic players in Europe this season
Tottenham vs Man City: Key battles in the Champions League quarter-final
battered and bruised
Argentina boss and former Hammer Scaloni shows off injuries from crash
'One of the best I've played with' - Rooney begs Man United to sign DC United ace
Rangers assistant McAllister issues positive update after brutal attack in Leeds
England ace has the ability and the maturity to replace Ramsey at Arsenal
Wolves fan throws punches at Watford supporters in unprovoked Wembley attack
DAN AND OUT
Bournemouth defender to miss start of next season with knee injury
in or out?
'I cannot see him not playing for Man United' - Solskjaer provides Pogba update
What is expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.